2022/23 China imports fall to five-year low

China`s cotton imports in 2022/23 are predicted to fall to a five-year low of 1.4 m. t due to increased domestic production, lower domestic prices relative to foreign ones, and reduced for goverment reserves. Domestic use relative to production has become a significant factor driving import demand. The recent crop surged nearly to 6.7 m t while domestic use is forecasted just below the 5-year average at 7.7 m t. China`s state reserves of foreign cotton are considered high after three years of large purchases, mostly from the U.S. Imports in season 2023/24 are forecast to rise to 2.1 m t, replenishing state inventories.

(Source: USDA, World Markets and Trade, July 2023)

India: Cotton production slightly up in 2023/24

USDA`s estimates India`s cotton area at 12.7 m ha due to delayed monsoon rains. Cotton`s drought tolerance makes it an attractive alternative for farmers as the planting window for alternative crops shortens. Haryana`s sowing is underway, with a 2% decrease in cotton area. Global textile demand slows down and afffects consumption, trade and cotton yarn prices. India`s cotton imports reach 218,000 t while exports are forecasted at 522,000 t. Rajasthan has emerged as a major cotton growing state with a 27% increase from last year, while Punjab has lost 32% area. As a result India`s cotton production is estimated at 5.6 m t with slightly lower yields.

(Source:USDA/FAS, Gain Report, July 2023)

USA: July projection

The U.S. cotton production projection for 2023/24 remains at 3.6 m t with a 14% increase from the previous year. However it falls 440,000 t below the five-year average. The Southeast is forecast to account for 21.5% cotton area, while the Delta region is predicted to account for 15% of the U.S. upland cotton area. Upland cotton planting in the West are forecast to decrease to 53,000 ha. Extra-long-staple (ELS) cotton acreage is expected to drop to 40%. Despite reduced cotton planted area due to competing crop prices, higer harvested acreage is anticipated due to drought reducing rainfall.

(Source: USDA, Cotton & Wool Outlook, July 2023)

For more detailed information please see Bremen Cotton Exchange – Report No. 29-30/2023, Bremen Cotton Report